Simulation is a Favorite Tool for Life Restoration

Lawrence L. Lapin

Twitter: @LarryLLapin

The Adam’s Chronicles tell about restoring the Planet after nearly all life has been destroyed by the massive meteor from Comet Icarus. Superhero Adam Boatwright directs that effort. Though, he becomes dissatisfied with what has been accomplished. He wants the new world to have better ecological balance, like before the emergence of modern humans. This will involve bringing back several species driven to extinction by early man. His plans include bringing back Saber-Toothed Cats and Woolly Mammoths. Adam is willing to use every conceivable genetic trick to accomplish this.

I once taught management science, a discipline in which mathematics is applied to decision making. One powerful tool for evaluating alternatives is Monte Carlo simulation. Although the name connotes gambling, its roots go back to early nuclear-fission work, the first digital computers, and generating uncertain events through random numbers (which are like slots on a roulette wheel at Monte Carlo). Those events are combined with others to provide a trial outcome. Those results are then evaluated using statistical methods to find the best alternative.

An easy way to understand such an assessment would be comparing two alternatives for constructing a house. Plan A would be to hire a small crew and give them unlimited hours of overtime. To make things interesting, the house must be completed within a fixed timespan, enforced through a substantial daily late penalty. The second alternative is to build the same house under Plan B, which employs a cheaper, less-skillful crew, membership of which expands or contracts on a daily basis as needed.

Both plans can be simulated by building the house each way a thousand times “on paper.” Random features would be weather, accidents, approval times, individual activity completion times, and so on. Simulation results could then be compared in terms of mean completion times and mean total cost.

In Book III, Adam’s Tiger, a simulation approach is used to determine an estimate of the underlying probability that a Woolly Mammoth will be killed during a solo attack by a modified Siberian Tiger having tusks for eye teeth. A mathematical model for behavior of both animals underlies that conflict. Like a house-construction simulation, the animals would engage trial battles varying by a host of random factors. The percentage of kills by the tiger would provide an estimate of the desired probability. Hypothetical tigers with different characteristics could be evaluated to see what animal would best prey on mammoths.

Superhero Adam Boatwright would make many similar simulations to evaluate the ecological impacts for many restorations decisions. For instance, simulation tells that modified tigers would make better mammoth hunters than lions. Such analyses show Adam that little ecological contribution would arise from restoring giant beavers or ground sloths, and he decides they will remain extinct.

At the time of this posting, the following four books comprise the Adam’s Chronicles series, with more to be added.

Layout 1      Adam's New World 0616 (Small)      Adam's Tiger 0616 (Small)      Layout 1

Adam’s story is always brought up to date in fresh ways, so that books in this series may be read in any order.

The following book is the series prequel and may be read independently.

AdamForeverFinalCoverModifiedCorrected

All of the above are available at Amazon as Kindle E-Books.

What Others Say About This Series

Awesome story of restoration of Earth—an epic novel, one that shall never be forgotten. Dr. Lapin is truly gifted as a story teller. … Powerful, fast page turning story. Highly recommend—Nancy of Utah, Amazon Reviewer.

Great book, it is the kind of book you can’t wait to read again—Sandra Potter, Amazon Reviewer.

I am fascinated by the quality of this book. … A wonderful blend of thrilling adventure, science fiction and romance. … It delivers on so many different levels. Well done—Dennis Waller, Top 500 Amazon Reviewer.

This story had every element … an exciting plot, attention to detail, but best of all fleshed out, well-written and well-rounded character development. Abundance of well-illustrated scenes. … had me immersed from the beginning. The story flows … with ease, and the author shows exceptional skill when it comes to storytelling. … Twists and turns in this page turner … make you want to read it non-stop. … Highly recommended—Piaras, Amazon Reviewer.

Phenomenal series offers elements of the thriller, mystery, science fiction, and romance genres. Dr. Lapin’s novels are exciting, with wonderfully developed characters and situations—Jada Ryker, Top 1,000 Amazon Reviewer.

Mad scientist or brave hero? … A murder mystery, medical thriller, and science fiction novel all rolled into one. I recommend it highly—Diane Rapp, Amazon Reviewer.

A fast paced story so plausible that I had trouble figuring the line where science fact and science fiction resides. … That credibility made the debate about the desirability of immortality real instead of fantasy. … An entertaining read—Capt’n Bob, Amazon Reviewer.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *